Texas State at Baylor odds, picks and predictions


The Baylor Bear (1-1) welcome the Texas State Bobcats (1-1) at McLane Stadium on Saturday with kickoff scheduled for noon ET. Below we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Texas State at Baylor oddsand make our expert college football picks and predictions.

The Sun Belt has had an impressive few weeks, and Texas State will look to continue that success after Marshall beat Notre Dame and Appalachian State beat Texas A&M.

The Bobcats lost their first game of the season, a 38-14 loss to Nevada, then beat FIU 41-12. They are led by QB Layne Hatcherbut it was starting RB Calvin Hill who burst against FIU, rushing 195 yards.

Baylor comes into this game needing to stay perfect all the way for any playoff aspiration. He went to BYU and lost a tough game 26-20. He beat Albany 69-10 in his first game.

The Bears use their dominant running game to their advantage, averaging 205.5 yards in 2 games. Baylor is led by redshirt sophomore QB Blake Shapen.

Baylor is No. 19 in the AFCA Coaches Survey powered by USA TODAY Sports.

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Texas State at Baylor odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; to access USA TODAY sports betting hub for sports scores and odds for a full list. The rows were last updated Friday at 9:01 a.m. ET.

  • Silver Line (ML): Texas State +1500 (bet $100 to win $1,500) | Baylor -5000 (bet $5000 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Texas State +29.5 (-108) | Baylor -29.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Texas State at Baylor picks and predictions

Prediction

Baylor 35, Texas State 13

silver line

PASS.

No value here. To chase.

Against the spread

TEXAS STATE BET +29.5 (-108).

The Bobcats didn’t look great against Nevada, but Hill was never really able to make an impact. He ran for 15 yards on 9 carries instead of getting 25 carries against the FIU.

Playing from behind early, Hatcher was forced to throw 51 passes. Texas State hooked up with Nevada and lost 14-7 at halftime. The Bobcats have the staff to keep that close, and the Sun Belt has generally rewarded bettors in this game.

The Bears have a solid run defense, but their offense doesn’t look electric against BYU. Baylor had just 137 passing yards and used 4 running backs. This is the definition of running back by committee.

He’ll want to keep that clock ticking with his running game and going over a 30 point gap with a heavy offense against a competent opponent is not something I’m interested in supporting. Socket TEXAS STATE +29.5 (-108).

More less

PAYMENT LESS THAN 52.5 (-108).

Simply put, this is going to be a heavy game.

Hill is the star of the Bobcats and Baylor has many key players in its running game. Shapen didn’t look good late, and he may struggle to string together long, scoring possessions.

The Bears’ defense, limiting the Cougars’ running game to just 83 yards, is good enough to assume they’ll tame the Bobcats. Put it all together, and I’d rather LESS THAN 52.5 (-108).

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